Week 2: Monday Night Preview

Here's a preview of Monday Night's matchup - the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) will take on the Cincinnati Bengals (0-1), who are defending their home turf following a close game against the Chicago Bears. The Bengals are projected to win over the Steelers, who performed terribly against the Tennessee Titans.

Being division rivals, there is plenty of history between the two. Take a look at some stats from their matchups over the past 5 years (pulled from StatMilk.com):

Applying IDP Projections

Raw stat projections are pulled from FantasySharks.com.

Cincinnati should have the edge against the Pittsburgh running game overall, but may not run as effectively against the Steelers line. The Bengals should have above average coverage against the Pittsburgh passing game, except going deep, which may not even play a factor. 

As for the specific player matchups: 

The Bengals RB's appear to be more likely to hit their projections (depending on who sees more carries), but unless the Steelers are able to hit deep, expect the lower end of their projections. Even though AJ Green has a more difficult matchup compared to the average, he is going to be more likely to hit his top projection than Mohamed Sanu.

Here are the specific defensive projections for match-up references: 

 

Depth Chart

Expanded Player Projections 

 

Week 2 Projections

League Average Projections: 

DL AVG	2.69
LB AVG	4.004
DB AVG	4.35

 

Projections by Matchup: 

1	AWAY	NYJ			HOME	NEP
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.5	10		DL	3.65	14.6
	LB	2.766	16.6		LB	5.08	25.4
	DB	4.057	28.4		DB	5.08	25.4
2	AWAY	CAR			HOME	BUF
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3.16	15.8		DL	3.6	14.4
	LB	5.925	23.7		LB	3.62	18.1
	DB	3.85	15.4		DB	4.775	19.1
3	AWAY	CLE			HOME	BAL
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.9	11.6		DL	2.425	9.7
	LB	3	21		LB	3.7166	22.3
	DB	4.116667	24.7		DB	4.52	22.6
4	AWAY	DAL			HOME	KCC
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.333	7		DL	2.725	10.9
	LB	5.725	22.9		LB	4.9	24.5
	DB	4.42	22.1		DB	3.985	27.9
5	AWAY	MIN			HOME	CHI
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3.18	15.9		DL	3	15
	LB	2.9833	17.9		LB	4.275	17.1
	DB	3.825	30.6		DB	4.45	26.7
6	AWAY	WAS			HOME	GBP
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.05	4.1		DL	2.225	8.9
	LB	6.375	25.5		LB	4.183	25.1
	DB	4.4625	35.7		DB	5.575	22.3
7	AWAY	TEN			HOME	HOU
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.175	17.4		DL	3.2	12.8
	LB	5.325	21.3		LB	3.3142	23.2
	DB	4.585	32.1		DB	4.0625	32.5
8	AWAY	SDC			HOME	PHI
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.52	12.6		DL	2.975	11.9
	LB	5.1	15.3		LB	3.014	21.1
	DB	4.9	34.3		DB	2.9	20.3
9	AWAY	MIA			HOME	IND
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3	21		DL	1.78	8.9
	LB	3.7	14.8		LB	3.04	21.3
	DB	4.166	25		DB	4.27	29.9
10	AWAY	STL			HOME	ATL
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3.675	14.7		DL	2.725	10.9
	LB	4.8	19.2		LB	4.325	17.3
	DB	5.214	36.5		DB	4.74	23.7
11	AWAY	DET			HOME	CAR
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.48	12.4		DL	3.16	15.8
	LB	2.1333	14.8		LB	5.925	23.7
	DB	4.15	33.2		DB	3.85	15.4
12	AWAY	DEN			HOME	NYG
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.775	11.1		DL	3.38	16.9
	LB	3.5	14		LB	4.375	17.5
	DB	5.54	27.7		DB	3.7	25.9
13	AWAY	NOR			HOME	TBB
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3.566	10.7		DL	1.5142	10.6
	LB	2.65	10.6		LB	4.475	17.9
	DB	5.05	40.4		DB	4.25	25.5
14	AWAY	JAX			HOME	OAK
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.3	11.5		DL	3.25	13
	LB	4.925	19.7		LB	3.88	19.4
	DB	3.88	19.4		DB	4.26	21.3
15	AWAY	SF			HOME	SEA
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.025	8.1		DL	1.9666	11.8
	LB	4.72	23.6		LB	3.42	17.1
	DB	3.4777	31.3		DB	4.3	21.5
16	AWAY	PIT			HOME	CIN
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.2	8.8		DL	3.76	18.8
	LB	4.375	17.5		LB	5.7666	17.3
	DB	4.51	31.6		DB	3.5625	28.5

Week 1 Projections

League Average Projections: 

DL AVG	2.5768
LB AVG	4.198
DB AVG	4.44

Projections by Matchup: 

1	AWAY	BAL			HOME	DEN
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.325	9.3		DL	2.6	13
	LB	4.66	28		LB	4.45	17.8
	DB	4.3714	30.6		DB	3.45	27.6
2	AWAY	NEP			HOME	BUF
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	4.125	16.5		DL	3.275	13.1
	LB	4.24	21.2		LB	4.48	22.4
	DB	5.94	29.7		DB	4.14	20.7
3	AWAY	MIA			HOME	CLE
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.64	18.5		DL	2.62	13.1
	LB	5.86	17.6		LB	3.3	23.1
	DB	4.71	28.3		DB	4.816	28.9
4	AWAY	CIN			HOME	CHI
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3.1857	22.3		DL	2.74	13.7
	LB	5.96	17.9		LB	4.78	23.9
	DB	5.3	31.8		DB	3.575	28.6
5	AWAY	SEA			HOME	CAR
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.383	14.3		DL	3.25	19.5
	LB	4.025	16.1		LB	4.35	26.1
	DB	4.24	29.7		DB	3.95	23.7
6	AWAY	MIN			HOME	DET
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.883	17.3		DL	2.7285	19.1
	LB	3.18	22.3		LB	4.375	17.5
	DB	4.5	36		DB	3.76	30.1
7	AWAY	OAK			HOME	IND
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.54	12.7		DL	1.74	8.7
	LB	3.56	17.8		LB	3.528	24.7
	DB	4.514	31.6		DB	4.68	32.8
8	AWAY	ATL			HOME	NOR
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	1.95	15.6		DL	2.275	9.1
	LB	4.375	17.5		LB	4.45	17.8
	DB	6.82	34.1		DB	4.875	39
9	AWAY	KCC			HOME	JAX
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	1.85	7.4		DL	2.316	13.9
	LB	3.428	24		LB	6.36	19.1
	DB	5.2	26		DB	4.283	25.7
10	AWAY	TBB			HOME	NYJ
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.142	15		DL	2.625	10.5
	LB	5.2	20.8		LB	2.8	19.6
	DB	4.283	25.7		DB	3.714	26
11	AWAY	TEN			HOME	PIT
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.075	16.6		DL	1.05	4.2
	LB	5.2	20.8		LB	4.34	21.7
	DB	4.283	25.7		DB	4.614	32.3
12	AWAY	ARI			HOME	STL
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.68	13.4		DL	2.63	15.8
	LB	3.11	21.8		LB	5.2	20.8
	DB	4.4375	35.5		DB	4.6714	32.7
13	AWAY	GB			HOME	SF
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.15	8.6		DL	2.625	10.5
	LB	5.54	27.7		LB	4.283	25.7
	DB	4.7	28.2		DB	3.83	34.5
14	AWAY	NYG			HOME	DAL
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	3.18	22.3		DL	3.2	9.6
	LB	4.02	20.1		LB	5.285	23.3
	DB	4.32	30.3		DB	4.64	23.2
15	AWAY	PHI			HOME	WAS
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	2.775	11.1		DL	2.1	4.2
	LB	3.214	22.5		LB	6.55	26.2
	DB	3.74	26.2		DB	4.5	31.5
16	AWAY	HOU			HOME	SD
		AVG	TOTAL			AVG	TOTAL
	DL	4.13	12.4		DL	2.26	11.3
	LB	4.066	24.4		LB	4.02	20.1
	DB	3.525	28.2		DB	4.95	29.7