Using these predictions

Using IDP Projections to Project Standard Scoring Matchups

If you play Fantasy Football, there’s a good chance that you are familiar with the variety of options available when it comes to the types of leagues available for you to participate in. Not only can you choose from different sites like ESPN, Yahoo, NFL.com, and many others to host your league, but custom scoring options offer an endless number of possibilities for fantasy commissioners to tweak the experience to their own fancy.

One of the more popular alternatives to the standard scoring systems is the PPR format, or “point-per-reception”, which awards additional points for catches on top of earning points for gaining yards and scoring. This requires fantasy owners to re-evaluate the way that they select their starters, as the same player can put up huge numbers with an otherwise unstellar performance. An excellent example is Julian Edleman’s Week 2 performance against the New York Jets, proving to be very valuable for PPR owners with 13 receptions in addition to his 78 yard/0 TD performance (that’s a 20 point performance in a PPR league vs. a 7 point performance in a standard scoring league).

It goes much deeper than standard scoring and PPR, however. Individual Defense Player (IDP) leagues add a whole new dynamic to fantasy football, as they require fantasy owners to draft defensive players instead of selecting a single team’s defense. This means keeping up with a whole new set of players, skillsets, and projections every week if you want to come out ahead. This might seem overwhelming for beginners who are still trying to wrap their brains around which WR or RB to start, but it can really help one to appreciate the complexity that the game of football has to offer by opening up a whole new world of statistical possibilities.

So why should fantasy owners in non-IDP leagues pay attention to individual defensive performances?

Just like the offensive side of the ball, a defense has different strengths and weaknesses that change depending on the personnel that suit up each week. If you are wondering if your star WR is going to have a good game, knowing how well the opposition’s CB is projected to perform can help you make a more educated decision if you just can’t figure out who to put in your flex spot.
For further clarification, let’s look at a very basic and general breakdown of position assignments on the defensive side of the ball:

Note: These are very basic explanations of the different positions, so it’s important to keep in mind that the rabbit’s hole goes much deeper in terms of position complexity. That’s not even factoring in the multitude of defensive schemes out there, which determine how a particular team might use the different positions or assignments. However, this should serve as a solid foundation on the road to understanding how the different match-ups can help predict how your fantasy starters are going to perform at the end of the day.

Defensive line (DL):

A strong defensive line means that the offense will have a tougher time running the ball and protecting the QB in the pocket. Just as offensive lines are vital to creating openings for the RB to run through, defensive lines can also create openings for a linebacker to barrel through and put additional pressure on the QB to make a play. Evaluating the strength of an opponent’s defensive line will help determine the success of the run game, in addition to the added pressures a QB may face to make a play before the pocket falls apart.

Linebackers (LB):

Linebackers sit behind the defensive line and typically occupy space in the middle of the field. They help protect against both the passing game and the running game, and are essential in shutting down teams that utilize the option. If an opponent’s defensive line is weak, you may have some short-term success with the run, but strong linebackers will prevent an RB from easily breaking through for a big run. In addition, they can shut down the mid-range passing game, which spells disaster for teams looking to gain yards from TE’s or WR’s running slant/cross routes (this makes it even more important to know how your receivers are used in the offense).

Defensive Backs (Cornerbacks/Safeties – DB):

Typically referred to as the secondary, defensive backs are going to be primarily guarding against passing offenses and stopping any run that makes it past the defensive line and linebackers. There is a ton of variation in the ways that NFL defenses utilize the secondary, but as a general rule for fantasy owners, it is very important to match the way your WR plays to the DBs they will be facing that particular week. For example, the cornerback position usually matches to a specific WR, so knowing what type of CB that Julio Jones is facing can tell you a lot about what to expect from his performance. The safeties, however, are more likely to switch between watching a particular zone or following a certain man on the field - therefore, if Calvin Johnson is facing a difficult CB matchup on top of a solid secondary, you can expect with good reason that he will have to fight against double coverage to make a play.

Week 2 Projections for Avg. Fantasy Points earned by position:

Here’s an in depth look at the defensive matchups for Week 2. You should look at each position (DL, LB, DB) and The values were determined by taking the fantasy points earned averages for each position individually, then sorting the positions by team, and then comparing the team average to the average from all players at that position.

Raw data was gathered from FantasySharks.com, including specific individual stats like projected INT, Tackles, Sacks, etc.

DL	LB	DB
2.69455	4.00445	4.35326

Using the overall positional averages, we can compare each team’s projected point earn averages to determine how strong they are likely to perform against the average.

For example, the Cleveland Browns will be facing the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore this week. The Ravens DL is projected at 2.45, which is slightly under the league average. That would indicate that Trent Richardson isn't going to face as much trouble up front. But, let's say that the Ravens DL was projected for 4.25, which is significantly higher than the league average, but the LB is projected at 3.716, which is lower than the league average.

This seems to indicate that Trent Richardson will have a tough matchup against the Ravens line. Especially considering his average YPC in 2012 was 3.6, we can probably assume that he will not have many opportunities to make it through to face the Ravens LB’s, who have projections under the league average. However, Jordan Cameron should find himself in slightly better shape if he is targeted up front by Brandon Weeden. We can probably assume that the Ravens DB’s are going to out match the receivers in their range with their projection of 4.52, slightly above the league average.

Keep in mind this shouldn’t be the only thing you should be looking at to make roster decisions – Trent is still a stud, and Jordan Cameron is largely unproven. In addition, using fantasy points earned probably isn’t the most specific or accurate way to project the matchups, but because fantasy points are determined by specific statistics relevant to player performance, they can still give us a general idea of what is likely to occur, barring injury or unforeseen circumstances.


Week 2 Projections for Avg. Fantasy Points earned by game:
All statistics are ranked in comparison to the league averages. The “-“ symbol denotes lower than league average, the “+” symbol indicates higher than league average, and the “++” symbols indicate a significant improvement. Also, I transcribed a few of the stats when moving them from my spreadsheet to Reddit table format, so the Ravens DL was originally 4.24, while the Colts DB was at 4.3. These stats have been corrected.

 

Away	DL	LB	DB	Home	DL	LB	DB
CAR	3.16	5.925++	3.85	@BUF	3.6++	3.62-	4.77+
CLE	2.9+	3-	4.11-	@BAL	2.45++	3.716-	4.52+
DAL	2.3-	5.725++	4.42+	@KCC	2.725+	3.98	4.9+
DEN	2.775+	3.5-	5.54++	@NYG	3.38++	4.375+	3.7-
DET	2.48-	2.13-	4.15-	@ ARI	2.74+	3.18-	5.64++
JAX	2.3-	4.925+	3.88-	@ OAK	3.25+	3.88-	4.26-
MIA	3+	3.7-	4.16+	@IND	1.78-	3.04-	4.27-
MIN	3.18+	2.983-	3.825-	@CHI	3+	4.275+	4.45+
NOS	3.56+	2.65-	5.05++	@TBB	1.5-	4.475+	4.25-
NYJ	2.5-	2.76-	4.05-	@NEP	3.65+	5.08++	5.08++
PIT	2.2-	4.37+)	4.51+	@CIN	3.76+	5.76++	3.56-
SDC	2.52-	5.1+	4.9+	@PHI	2.975+	3.014-	2.9-
SF	2.025-	4.72+	3.477-	@SEA	1.9-,	3.42-	4.3-
STL	3.675+	4.8+	5.214++	@ATL	2.75+	4.325+	4.74+
TEN	2.175-	5.325++	4.585+	@HOU	3.2+	3.31-	4.06-
WAS	2.05-	6.375++	4.46+	@GBP	2.25-	4.18+	5.575++

Note: The NYJ@NEP game was a bit of an anomaly for a variety of reasons – weather, poor rookie performances, and a seemingly improved New York Jets.

Keep in mind that these values are for week 2 only!